Worldwide Financial Planning

There appear to be fewer concerns about the US government’s rapid increase in its deficit as Donald Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” was signed off by Congress. Official estimates show that the bill’s tax cuts and additional spending will increase borrowing by $3.4tn over the next 10 years, but the dollar and treasury yields were unmoved.

We don’t rip up our driving licence every time we hit a pothole. Some investors can react like this the moment markets get bumpy. They panic, bail out, and swear never to invest again, until the next boom, of course.

In domestic policy, Trump’s efforts to undermine the authority of Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell stepped up with the suggestion that Trump will name Powell’s successor as early as September (almost nine months before Powell’s term ends) as he pushes for aggressive US interest rate cuts.

Not long ago, such an escalation would have had oil prices soaring, traders scrambling, and central banks freaking out. But when Israel struck Iran, Brent crude futures prices did spike – 7 per cent in the day. Brent crude flirted around $78 (intraday high of 13 per cent). Yet by the time the dust settled, it drifted back down to around $73, even lower than when the hostilities began.

May retail sales in the UK fell by 2.7% from April and consumer borrowing on credit cards increased noticeably. However, consumer sentiment has improved, with expectations about personal finances notably better.

In a world where investors might be searching for the ‘least dirty shirt’, the UK can benefit from capital rotation away from the US/dollar. London still has legal credibility, deep capital markets, and familiarity. Don’t underestimate that.